https://blog.georgefabish.com/tags/confirmation_bias/ Recent content in Confirmation_bias on George's Blog Hugo en-US Mon, 02 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 https://blog.georgefabish.com/reviews/the-black-swan-the-impact-of-the-highly-improbable/ Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:33:27 -0500 https://blog.georgefabish.com/reviews/the-black-swan-the-impact-of-the-highly-improbable/ <p>Nassim Taleb investigates the improbability baked into the world and the expert&rsquo;s underestimation of it. A quick synopsis of the title is that for many years it was assumed that all Swans were white. This assumption held true over thousands and thousands of observations. It remained true until Australia was discovered and lo and behold a Black Swan was found and overthrew the &ldquo;scientific theory&rdquo; that all swans are white. This anecdote is a reminder that we cannot verify anything, only conduct experiments that either confirm or disconfirm theories. Confirmation of a theory should not be considered verification. This problem is the main focus of the book which is: you can for sure know when you are wrong but will never know when you&rsquo;re right. Taleb defines a Black Swan event as relates to the book as having the following characteristics:</p>